Fred has a good post for discussion today here, and there are some comments worth reading. My contribution follows...
We held our 8th Startup Lancaster on Monday--20 founders this time, most of them new to the group. We've had a good group since last May, but one of the things I keep seeing is 1) indecisiveness and 2) lack of a business model or confidence in one.
So we focused on 2 things: what is the pain you're alleviating, and what's the model. What do you sell, who is buying it, how often, and how do you deliver it.
You can overcome a lot of the "wiggles of false hope" if you talk daily with prospects and customers and develop the path to sustainable revenue.
"Researching" on the web, talking to friends, attending conferences etc might make you feel like you're doing something, but until somebody makes a sale, you're going to be speculating until you get tired of it and shut down.
Last point--we didn't talk about raising capital. A lot of founders I come across look at investment as external validation that will lift them to success.
But you have to build your own success, and only take capital to amplify it.